A number of bank officials announced： cut interest rates!

A few days ago, many banks "cut interest rates".

According to the China Fund, small and medium-sized banks from Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Yunnan and other places issued intensive announcements, announcing the reduction of the executive interest rate of time deposits.According to incomplete statistics, the deposit interest rate is lowered from 5 basis points to 45 basis points.

In the industry’s view, the reduction of deposit interest rates by regional banks in many places is still a continuation of the third round of deposit interest rate reduction of commercial banks in 2023. Under the pressure of further compression of bank deposit and loan spreads, national banks may start a new wave of deposit interest rate cuts in the first half of the year.

A number of small and medium-sized banks announced

Lower deposit interest rate

The reporter noted that at the beginning of April, a number of small and medium-sized banks in Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangdong and other places issued the "Announcement on Adjusting the Executive Interest Rate of Time Deposits" in official channels, announcing that the interest rate of time deposits would be lowered. The lump-sum deposit and withdrawal rates for three months, six months, one year, two years and three years are all involved.

In this interest rate cut, the number of banks under the jurisdiction of Henan is mostly, and dozens of rural commercial banks and rural banks have announced the reduction of time deposit interest rates.

Specifically, from March 31, 2024, Zhumadian Rural Commercial Bank will adjust the annual interest rate of three-month, six-month, one-year, two-year, three-year and five-year lump-sum time deposits. According to the adjustment information, the five-year deposit interest rate remains unchanged at 2.4%, and the deposit interest rates of other maturities have been lowered, ranging from 15 basis points to 35 basis points.

Since April 1st, Xinmi Rural Commercial Bank has adjusted the two-year deposit interest rate from 2.4% to 2%, dropping by 40 basis points. The bank’s one-year deposit interest rate was lowered by 35 basis points simultaneously, and it was adjusted to 1.8%. The six-month and three-month deposit rates were lowered from 1.8% and 1.6% to 1.65% and 1.4%, respectively, by 15 and 20 basis points.

Before April 1, the one-year deposit interest rate of Xiuwu Rural Commercial Bank was as high as 2.25%, which was significantly reduced by 45 basis points to 1.8%. The two-year interest rate has also been lowered by a relatively large margin, by 35 basis points to 2%.

Hebi Rural Commercial Bank previously set multi-grade annualized interest rates for deposits of the same term according to different deposit amount ranges. On April 1st, the bank announced that it would adjust the fixed deposit rate. According to the adjusted interest rate setting, this "grading" is cancelled, and the deposit interest rate of the same term remains the same, and all of them are implemented according to the previous minimum amount range.

A similar situation also appeared in Qixian Rural Credit Cooperative Association, which no longer implemented different annual interest rates for lump-sum time deposits according to the amount.

In addition, Shaanxi Zhashui Rural Commercial Bank, Daixian Hongdu Village Bank, Yunnan Shiping Beiyin Village Bank, Dejiang Changzheng Village Bank, Bo ‘ai Rural Commercial Bank, Guangdong Puning Huicheng Village Bank, Zhoukou Rural Commercial Bank and many other small and medium-sized banks have recently announced that they will cut their deposit interest rates from the end of March or early April.

However, the interest rate adjustment range of each bank is not consistent with the adjusted interest rate. Even though the reduction has been made, the implementation interest rate of some village banks’ five-year time deposits is as high as 3%, the three-year time deposit is 2.95%, and the two-year and one-year time deposits can be as high as 2.4% and 2.1% respectively.

Or for the follow-up of the "interest rate cut tide" at the end of last year.

For the reasons why many small and medium-sized banks announced the reduction of deposit interest rates this time, many insiders said that it was the continuation of the third round of deposit interest rate reduction of commercial banks last year. From the results, with the downward adjustment of interest rates, the phenomenon of "local inversion" of deposit interest rates has improved.

An industry insider analyzed that the domestic market generally adopts a "step-by-step" approach to reduce the deposit interest rate to ensure a stable and orderly deposit market. That is to say, according to the practice of interest rate cuts in the banking industry, state-owned banks generally take the lead, and small and medium-sized banks will follow up step by step, and the decline rate of small and medium-sized banks is often greater than that of state-owned banks. This time, the joint interest rate cut by regional banks in many places is probably the continuation of the third round of deposit interest rate reduction of commercial banks last year.

Last year, state-owned banks updated the interest rate of RMB deposits three times. By the end of the year, there were few deposit products with annualized interest rate above 3%. Especially after the third adjustment in the year on December 22, the three-year fixed deposit and listing interest rate of state-owned big banks broke through the integer mark of 2% and fell to 1.95%.

It is worth noting that while commercial banks lowered the deposit interest rate, some small and medium-sized banks seized the time window lowered by their peers to absorb deposits with high interest rates against the trend, which led to many phenomena of "partial upside down" of medium and long-term deposit interest rates.

Under normal circumstances, bank deposits follow the rule of "the longer the term, the higher the interest rate". However, in the first quarter of this year, many banks adjusted the interest rates of some term products, resulting in the phenomenon that the 5-year interest rate of time deposits was the same as the 3-year interest rate, even lower than the 3-year deposit rate, especially among many small and medium-sized banks.

After this interest rate adjustment, the upside-down phenomenon of deposit interest rates in some banks has been eliminated, especially the situation that the annualized interest rate of medium-term deposit products is higher than that of long-term deposit products may be alleviated.

For example, jia county Rural Credit Cooperatives previously had a fixed deposit interest rate of 2.65% for three years and 2.4% for five years, which was reduced to 2.35% for three years and remained unchanged for five years. The previous three-year and five-year deposits of Shenqiu Rural Commercial Bank also had the problem of interest rate inversion, which was eliminated after adjustment.

A banker in South China said that under the pressure of spreads, deposits and deposits, banks have the phenomenon of interest rate inversion, but this phenomenon is only short-term and cannot exist for a long time. "With the deepening of interest rate marketization, the phenomenon of interest rate inversion may be automatically corrected. In fact, due to the unsustainable mode of high debt cost, a number of small and medium-sized banks have recently followed suit to lower deposit interest rates. "

There is still room for lowering the deposit interest rate.

What is the trend of bank deposit interest rate? Will it be further lowered? Many institutions and market participants generally believe that there is still room for lowering the deposit interest rate.

Recently, the relevant person in charge of the central bank said that it is necessary to guide banks to lower the deposit interest rate by deepening the interest rate marketization reform. At the same time, there is still room for adjustment of monetary policies such as deposit reserve. The reduction of the statutory deposit reserve ratio means that more funds can be freely circulated, and more liquidity means that the deposit and loan interest rates and the yields of various wealth management products are expected to further decline.

Some people believe that in the second and third quarters of this year, the market is likely to usher in a new round of adjustment of deposit interest rates again. According to the research report of CITIC Securities, from the perspective of the time law of deposit interest rate reduction, the time interval of deposit listing interest rate adjustment varies from 3 to 9 months, but there is a clear trend of shortening the time interval in the past year.

Citic Securities judged that considering the adjustment in April 2022 and 2023, the possibility of lowering the deposit interest rate in April this year was not even ruled out. Formally, in addition to the demonstration role of big banks, it may also be to control the issuance scale or pricing level of some special deposit products and reduce the space for banks to "save at high interest rates".

As for the reasons for lowering the deposit interest rate, on the one hand, affected by macroeconomic recovery, monetary policy regulation and other factors, the overall market interest rate level has fallen. On the other hand, the growth rate of social financing demand has obviously slowed down, especially under the influence of factors such as the replacement of residents’ stock mortgages, the structure of bank assets has changed.

"The answer may lie in deposits and loans.Further compression of the spread space. Originally, this gap was a’ gold mine’ for banks to survive, but at present, this one seems to be quietly tightening. An analyst pointed out that the main reason why banks cut the deposit interest rate is to ease the pressure of narrowing the net interest margin, stabilize the income level and continuously reduce the financing cost of the real economy.

Source: China Fund.

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